Our PCR tests are 1000X more sensitive than these used in Germany
Why we see more cases than any other country
My new objective to hold myself accountable. So I’m starting a youtube channel as a new form as well as doing my weekly letter.
The videos will be small. But a daily reporting on news, ideas, topics that I feel should be covered more in the normal outlets. Quick videos on what I learned and think are relevant to you as well.
I recently had learned that the PCR tests that we use to identify positive cases in the United States are 1000X more sensitive than the ones they use in Germany.
Pardon the video quality, we just moved an I’m still in the process of setting up our video equipment.
I get into the PCR stuff at (3:00minutes).
The ball has been dropped with COVID testing since Day 1,
Each country is comparing how they handel the outbreat from a statistical standpoint.
Yet we aren’t using the same parameters!
May 14th: NY Times showed us that our Coronavirus PCR test might be too sensitive.
We allow the samples to be amplified to the trillionth copies.
Most of our positive cases would have been NEGATIVE cases if they were tested under the same threshold as Germany.
We run our samples to 40 cycles, while Germany runs their sample to 30 cycles.
THAT IS 1000 X more sensitive.
On the Adam Carolla show, Dr. Drew says at (23:00 min) says that Germany they run only 30 cycles for their PCR tests.
Ct values = cycle threshold value.
On Peak Prosperity he reviewed a study done by the Infectious Disease Advisor evaluated 183 samples.
They were looking to see at what cycle would you get viable (live and actively infectious) virus.
When samples were pulled from rounds 13-17 cycles, they had positive virus cultures.
They determined that patients with positve Covid Ct values ABOVE 33 can be released from the hospital.
PCR tests that test positive over 33-34 cycles you aren't infectious.
The chances of having positive Covid virus in your sample diminished to
12% at 33 cycles
and 0% at 34 cycles.
In the USA we test till 40 cycles, so 90% of our samples run will show a positive COVID case even if they aren’t actively infected.
Doctors and patients aren't shown the CT values.
More information on Cycle Threshold values.
Dr. Mina who works in NY Wadworth argues that we need to change the threshold for COVID positive PCR tests. Most of our tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. But if we changed the limit to 30 then almost 1000X less people would test positive for COVID 19.
Their lab collected 794 positives and compared the CT values. Based on a threshold of 35, half those tests don't qualify as positive cases.
When they changed the cycle threshold to 30 then 85-90 percent of those tested positve would have been deemed negative.
So if the media will Judge us for how we are handling the virus outbreak, maybe we should reevaluate how we look and compare our data.
Subscribe on youtube and here for a clip tomorrow on how Nancy Pelosi could become our president.